Projected California Unemployment Rate for 2010 through 2020

You’re probably wondering when and how fast the economy is likely to recover for a lot of strategic planning reasons like: when are sales likely to increase, or when should I hire more employees. Every business is different, but overall you should see the following occur within a reasonable margin for error. These figures were created from historical unemployment data from 1976 to Dec. 2009. These projections are purely economic-based.

From Jan 2010 to the first quarter of 2012 unemployment is projected to drop from 10% to approximately 7.2%. This projection is based on the high in California unemployment rate of about 10.8% in 1983 that decreased to 7.2% in 1985 and the high in California unemployment rate of about 9.9% in 1993 that decreased to 7.8% in 1995. 

From about the first quarter of 2012 to the first quarter of 2013 unemployment is projected to hold at 7.2%. This projection is based on the technical indicators of California Unemployment of about 7.2% to 6.8% in 1980 through 1981, 1985 through 1986, and 2002 through 2004. It also includes indicators in California Unemployment of 7.8% in 1991 and 1995 through 1996.

From about the first quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2016 California Unemployment is projected to drop from 7.2% to about 5%. This projection is based on the technical indicators from 1985 though 1988, 1996 though 1999 and 2004 through 2006.

From about the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2016 California Unemployment is projected to hold at about 5%. This projection is based on the technical indicators from 1988 through 1990, 1999 through 2001 and 2006 through 2007.

From about the fourth quarter of 2016 to the first quarter of 2019 California Unemployment is projected to increase from about 5% to 6.8%. This projection is based on the technical indicators of California Unemployment of about 7.2% to 6.8% in 1980 through 1981, 1985 through 1986, and 2002 through 2004. It also includes indicators in California Unemployment of 7.8% in 1991 and 1995 through 1996.

From about the first quarter of 2019 to the first quarter of 2021 California Unemployment is projected to hold at about 6.8%. This projection is based on the technical indicators of California Unemployment of about 6.8% from 2002 and 2004, and it is supported by indicators in 1980 through 1981, 1985 through 1986, and 2002 through 2004.

Although it is inconclusive whether California Unemployment will increase after the first quarter of of 2021, the period of time between recessions is increasing. This is an overall good sign that’s shows the financial management of California and the nation as a whole is slowly improving over time. In addition, the recession in 1983 had a high California Unemployment rate of 11% and the recession of 1993 had a high California Unemployment rate of 9.9%. Ten years later we had a mini-recession with a high California Unemployment rate of 6.9%. If you exclude the most recent recession, you would see that the nation was thriving and the impact of recessions was decreasing, then in 2007 things started to change.

International Factors:

Jobs, raw materials like iron and petroleum, and FDI started to shift to China. Although many investors are optimistic about earning 15% in China, while the US and Europe are recovering from a recession. These new markets will not sustain double digit growth indefinitely due to wage increases in China. The biggest problem is that China holds it’s own currency to inflate the value of its dollar relative to other currencies, then the Chinese government makes large purchases of iron and petroleum at a huge discount. Recently, they were caught trying to own a controlling interest in several US petroleum companies. Under normal circumstances you would think China is a growing country, and that’s why they are buying up a majority of the world’s iron and petroleum. However, we’ve known for years now that they are stockpiling more than 80% of their iron and petroleum. Why? Aren’t bullets and military equipment made out of iron? Don’t they need petroleum to fuel their aircraft and tanks? Although the rewards from investing in China may be initially attractive, the risk of losing all of your investment as a result of political action or war may not be worth the risk.

Domestic Factors:

Real estate values in the US from 2004 to 2008 were overinflated by over-optimistic home appraisals. This resulted in excessive spending and debt from refinancing, HELOCs and home sales. Once creditors decided to slow down the excessive spending, people lost their jobs. Mortgage rates have been very low the whole time, so the problem is not Adjustable Rate Mortgages. It’s people out of work. This could easily be prevented in the future by best practices that place a cap on average nationwide real estate growth. Appraisers that go over the average rate set in their area, should be investigated and possibly lose their license.